## Transition To Win A Writing Contest

The estimates received as a result of application of the formalized methods are only base for acceptance of a final decision; thus additional criteria, including informal character can be taken into account.

The second group of methods continues use in calculations of expected values F. One of the simplest methods of this group - calculation of a payback period of investment. Sequence of actions of the analyst in this case is as follows:

It is the simplest case: the aolichestvo of possible situations (option and their outcomes is known. It is necessary to aybrat one of possible options. Degree of complexity of procedure of a choice in this case is defined only by quantity of alternative options. Let's consider two possible situations:

When carrying out the analysis in the conditions of definiteness the methods of machine imitation assuming multiple calculations on the COMPUTER can successfully be applied. In this case the imitating model of object or process (the computer program) containing b-e number of factors and variables which values in different combinations is exposed to a variation is under construction. Thus machine imitation is an experiment, but not in real, and in artificial conditions. By results of this experiment one or several options which are basic for acceptance of a final decision on the basis of additional formal and informal criteria are selected.

Theoretically there are four types of situations to whom it is necessary to carry out the analysis and to make administrative decisions, including at the level of the enterprise: in the conditions of definiteness, risk, uncertainty, the conflict. Let's consider each of these cases.

Example: the managing director needs to make the decision on expediency of acquisition of the M1 machine or the machine M the Sq.m Machine is more economic that provides the bigger income on a unit of production, at the same time he more expensive also demands rather heavy overhead costs:

Example: there are two objects of investment with the identical expected sum of the demanded capital investments. The size of the planned income in each case is not certain and specified in a type of distribution of probabilities:

This situation is developed in the theory, however formalized an algoritmyanaliza are put rather seldom into practice. The main difficulty consists that it is impossible to estimate probabilities of outcomes here. - maximizing profit - here does not work the main criterion therefore apply other criteria: